Friday, August 27, 2010

The "Demon Core"

Time for some more early-nuclear age stories.

A 14-lb sphere of relatively-pure plutonium (just slightly below the 'critical mass' to cause a runaway reaction or explosion) actually went critical on two occasions at the Los Alamos Labory in 1945 and 1946. Both instances resulted in the death by radiation poisoning of a noted scientist involved.
The experiments involved were (or have come to be) known as "tickling the dragon's tail" since they both involved in some manner, slowly, slowly building up the reflections of neutrons (which cause fission in plutonium atoms) into this nicely-machined spherical piece of metal. Incidentally, the core itself was relative safe to handle, and any number of people did, holding it in their hands (it's rather heavy) and remarking how warm it was: the refined plutonium sphere gave off a fair amount of heat as a byproduct of its continuing nuclear decay.Surprisingly, it's not particularly dangerous to hold: plutonium decays by emitting alpha particles (a helium nucleus: two protons and two neutrons bound together) which which won't penetrate a few centimeters of air, a piece of paper, clothing or the human skin. When inhaled or ingested, that's another matter...
Following adapted from the Wikipedia article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_K._Daghlian,_Jr.

Anyway,in the experiment, Daghlian was attempting to build a neutron reflector by manually stacking a series of 4.4 kg tungsten carbide bricks in an incremental fashion around the plutonium core. The purpose of the neutron reflector was to reduce the mass required for the plutonium core to attain criticality.

As he was moving the final brick over the assembly, neutron counters alerted Daghlian to the fact that the addition of this brick would render the system supercritical. As he withdrew his hand, he accidentally dropped the brick onto the center of the assembly. Since the assembly was nearly in the critical state, the accidental addition of the last brick caused the reaction to go immediately into the prompt critical region of supercritical behavior. This resulted in a power excursion.

Daghlian panicked immediately after dropping the brick and attempted to knock off the brick without success; he was forced to partially disassemble the tungsten-carbide pile to halt the reaction. Daghlian was estimated to have received a dose of 510 rem (5.1 Sv) of neutron radiation, from a yield of 10^16 fissions. He died 25 days later from acute radiation poisoning.

In the second (as perhaps more famous) incident using this same plutonium core, the noted Physicist Louis Slotin was also killed.
On May 21, 1946, Slotin and seven other colleagues performed an experiment that involved the creation of one of the first steps of a fission reaction by placing two half-spheres of beryllium (a neutron reflector) around a plutonium core. The experiment used the same plutonium core that had irradiated Daghlian, later called the "Demon core" for its role in the two accidents. Slotin grasped the upper beryllium hemisphere with his left hand through a thumb hole at the top while he maintained the separation of the half-spheres using the blade of a screwdriver with his right hand, having removed the shims normally used.Using a screwdriver was not a normal part of the experimental protocol.

At 3:20 p.m., the screwdriver slipped and the upper beryllium hemisphere fell, causing a "prompt critical" reaction and a burst of hard radiation. At the time, the scientists in the room observed the "blue glow" of air ionization and felt a "heat wave". In addition, Slotin experienced a sour taste in his mouth and an intense burning sensation in his left hand. Slotin instinctively jerked his left hand upward, lifting the upper beryllium hemisphere and dropping it to the floor, ending the reaction. However, he had already been exposed to a lethal dose (around 2100 rems, or 21 Sv) of neutron and gamma radiation. Slotin's radiation dose was equivalent to the amount that he would have been exposed to by being 1500 m (4800 ft) away from the detonation of an atomic bomb.

As soon as Slotin left the building, he vomited, a common reaction from exposure to extremely intense ionizing radiation. Slotin's colleagues rushed him to the hospital, but irreversible damage had already been done. His parents were informed of their son's inevitable death and a number of volunteers donated blood for transfusions, but the efforts proved futile. Louis Slotin died nine days later on May 30, in the presence of his parents. He was buried in Winnipeg on June 2, 1946.

At first, the incident was classified and not made known even within the laboratory; Robert Oppenheimer and other colleagues later reported severe emotional distress at having to carry on with normal work and social activities while they secretly knew that their colleague lay dying.

This particular plutonium core ("The Demon Core") was later used in the Crossroads Able nuclear test.

Friday, August 20, 2010

The largest and perhaps oldest organism on earth?

What is the oldest organism on earth? What is the largest? Both of these turn out to to be difficult questions and may really depend on how you define the terms. In terms of area, a 'fungal mat' in Oregon discovered in 1992 is said to cover approximately 1500 acres, but both the area and whether this should be considered one organism is still a matter of debate. A single Giant Sequoia tree may weigh 4.5 million pounds. The bristlecone pine is a long-lived single organism with one specimen (named "Methuselah") having been ring-dated at almost 4,800 year old -- making it the oldest 'non-clonal' organism. The most intriguing candidate for both crowns is a 'group' of aspens in the Wasatch Mountains of Utah, which actually has a name: "Pando" -- Latin for "I spread."
Pando is more than 106 acres in size, and consists of more than 47,000 tree trunks (you'd assume that these are separate organisms, but they're not) collectively weighing more than 13 million pounds.
Although aspens do come in male and female varieties, the species seldom flowers and instead an individual propagates itself by vegetative reproduction: it sends out roots, which travel some distance before they sprout up and appear as separate plants. In fact, they are all genetically-identical clones of the orginal individual -- all just upshoots of a common root system, and can truly be considered one organism. That would make Pando the largest (by weight) of any organism on the planet. The oldest? The bristlecone pine is no longer considered the oldest or longest-living organism by most biologists, due to the existence of 'clonal colonies' such as Pando. Other species than aspens spread similarly, and one of the oldest (calculated) clone is a creosote bush estimated to be 11,700 years old.
Earlier biologists and botanists have postulated that some clones (the whole collective of visible, above-ground manifestations is actually called a 'clone') may have lifespans in the millions of years, or even be effectively immortal, barring a cataclysmic event; and even cataclysmic events such as fires and conflagrations are actually beneficial to these clones. These events do not destroy the deep-below-ground clonal root structure, and actually clear the area of competing species -- such as conifers -- with which they compete largely for needed sunlight.
Earlier this year, the 'immortality' idea was effectively discredited, however. Like any organism, even a clone's system was found to accumulate -- albeit very slowly -- natural mutations which affect and reduce the vegetative reproduction rates of these clonal colonies. Estimate show that after perhaps 20,000 years, the 'spreading capability' (reproductive viability) of the clonal structure (not the individual trees -- they die after 200 years at the most) may decline by as much as 50%, threatening the continued expansion of the clone.
Neverthess, both the Pando and other aspen clones in Europe have been estimated to be between at least 10,000 to 20,000 years old.

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Scientists call for a global nuclear renaissance in new study

Scientists outline a 20-year master plan for the global renaissance of nuclear energy that could see nuclear reactors with replaceable parts, portable mini-reactors, and ship-borne reactors supplying countries with clean energy, in research published today in the journal Science.

The scientists, from Imperial College London and the University of Cambridge, suggest a two-stage plan in their review paper that could see countries with existing nuclear infrastructure replacing or extending the life of nuclear power stations, followed by a second phase of global expansion in the industry by the year 2030. The team say their roadmap could fill an energy gap as old nuclear, gas and coal fired plants around the world are decommissioned, while helping to reduce the planet's dependency on fossil fuels.


Professor Robin Grimes, from the Department of Materials at Imperial College London, says: "Our study explores the exciting opportunities that a renaissance in nuclear energy could bring to the world. Imagine portable nuclear power plants at the end of their working lives that can be safely shipped back by to the manufacturer for recycling, eliminating the need for countries to deal with radioactive waste. With the right investment, these new technologies could be feasible. Concerns about climate change, energy security and depleting fossil fuel reserves have spurred a revival of interest in nuclear power generation and our research sets out a strategy for growing the industry long-term, while processing and transporting nuclear waste in a safe and responsible way."

The researchers suggest in their study that based on how technologies are developing, new types of reactors could come online that are much more efficient than current reactors by 2030. At the moment, most countries have light water reactors, which only use a small percentage of the uranium for energy, which means that the uranium is used inefficiently. The team suggest that new 'fast reactors' could be developed that could use uranium approximately 15 times more efficiently, which would mean that uranium supplies could last longer, ensuring energy security for countries.

Another idea is to develop reactors with replaceable parts so that they can last in excess of 70 years, compared to 40 or 50 years that plants can currently operate at. Reactors are subjected to harsh conditions including extreme radiation and temperatures, meaning that parts degrade over time, affecting the life of the reactor. Making replaceable parts for reactors would make them more cost effective and safe to run over longer periods of time
==============================================
Note from Bill Krog:
it's already happening: check out info about Hyperion Power Generation at http://www.hyperionpowergeneration.com/
They are in the production stage now -- and have hundreds of overseas orders -- for the "Hyperion Power Module", which basically is likened to a nuclear battery.
Which technology licensed to them by Los Alamos National Laboratories, the company is in production of a Nuclear Power Module, which is basically a 1.5 meter by 2 meter, self contained and sealed cube. It needs no complicated outside control station or system, is self-regulating and incapable of 'melt-down' type accidents, and is deliverable to the emplacement site worldwide by flatbed truck, ship or railcar. Once its delivered, all that's needed is (for security purposes) to dig a hole, bury it and surround it by a fence. The modular units will deliver 25MW of electicity energy (enough for about 20-25,000 American-style homes ) for 8-10 years. ("Stackable" for greater output). They are emplaced by the Company, and when they near the end of their useful life, the Company simply replaces them, like a battery.
They have NO carbon output/footprint, release NO gases, warmed water, particulates, etc, into the atmosphere, produce NO measureable radioacivity outside their own structure, cannot 'melt-down' or 'runaway' and neither use nor produce any nuclear materials which are usable in weapons-making applications, and fully meet all IAEA non-proliferation standards. You won't find a wind- or solar-based solution which will give you years of 25MW of base-load electricity 24/7/365, reagardless of whether the wind is blowing or not, or if the sun is shining or not, and which doesn't require hundreds or thousands of acres of land.

"We Gotta Get Outa This Place...

As the old song says.
Stephen Hawking (a bright person) said recently that mankind's only chance of long-term survival lies in colonising space, as humans drain Earth of resources and face a terrifying array of new threats.

"The human race shouldn't have all its eggs in one basket, or on one planet," the renowned astrophysicist told the website Big Think, a forum which airs ideas on many subjects from experts.

"Our only chance of long-term survival is not to remain inward looking on planet Earth, but to spread out into space," he added.
He warned that the human race was likely to face an increased number of events that threaten its very existence, as the Cuban missile crisis did in 1962.
The Cold War showdown saw the United States and Soviet Union in a confrontation over Soviet missiles deployed in Cuba, near US shores, and brought the world to the brink of nuclear war.
"We are entering an increasingly dangerous period of our history," said Hawking.
"Our population and our use of the finite resources of planet Earth are growing exponentially, along with our technical ability to change the environment for good or ill."If we want to survive beyond the next century, "our future is in space," added the scientist.
"That is why I'm in favour of manned, or should I say 'personed', space flight."
His comments came after he warned in a recent television series that mankind should avoid contact with aliens at all costs, as the consequences could be devastating.

Monday, August 9, 2010

NuDets

Or 'Nuclear Detonations' as you may know them.
Here a link to a computer-animated 'art work', showing all the known nuclear detonations worlwide by date, by country, etc. Very nicely done.
http://gizmodo.com/5600704/the-explosions-of-every-nuclear-bomb-to-date

The US total of 1030 corresponds to the official number acknowledged and published in the 'official record' of such things, the US Government publication "United States Nuclear Tests - July 1945 through September 1942"
DOE/NV -- 209 REV 15 Pub. December 2000.

If you'd like to see exactly where these 1030 detonations occurred, you can check my Google Map at:
http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=116945134295436436626.00044ff490bf518b65562&ll=44.150681,-148.447266&spn=36.757543,107.050781&t=h&z=4

This lists/shows the sites of all nuclear tests done in the USA, including Alaska, Nevada, Colorado, and Mississippi.
The map indicates the shot name, type, purpose, published yield and the the location of the surface-ground-zero of the drillhole or emplacement location. The location is accurate -- according to the US Government publication -- to to +- 100 meters or so; so the subsidence craters do not necessarily line up with the map markers, due both to the the location error, and to that fact that the map marker is the drill hole or emplacement location, not necessarily the spot directly underneath the center of the existant subsidence crater (if any).
NOTE: the Google map has five pages and is slow to load due to the number of data points and markers. In addition, if you are on Page 1 for example, only the markers/data for those points on Page 1 are shown. Navigate to the other pages to redisplay the map, and show the appropriate points/markers, which are listed in alphabetical order by shot name.

PS: if you look up and zoom in on 'Sedan' on Page 4, when you zoom close enough you will see the labelled roads in a circle, surrounding this large cratering shot. If you follow 'Groom Lake Road" to the east from the top of the circular road, as it winds through the mountains and desert, in about 18 miles you will come to an airbase with runways, on a dry lake bed. This is the renowned "Area 51" where the USA to this day tests and flies experimental and ultra-secret aircraft.

Saturday, August 7, 2010

'Extreme Skier Dies on K2'

It was reported today that skier and mountaineer Fredrik Ericcson died Friday, while trying to summit K2 in Pakistan -- the second-highest mountain in the world. Ericcson was attempting to be the first man to ski from summit to base camp on K2. According to his friends, Ericcson and his climbing partners had begun the 'summit push' between 1:00am and 1:30am in low-visibility weather. Somewhere along the summit route at about 8,300 meters (27,231 feet) Ericcson "lost his purchase and was unable to arrest his fall." (This would be a fall of almost 4,300 feet).

His body, resting at about 7,000 meters will remain where it lies and likely no attempt will be made to recover it, due to the extreme danger. K2 is considered much more difficult than Everest to ascend, and in terms of number of ascent attempts vs. number of climber deaths, is the most dangerous of all of the "eight-thousanders" (peaks over 8,000 meters) in the world.

Thursday, August 5, 2010

BYU Scientists Convert Matter Into Mormonism

PROVO, UT—A team of physicists from Brigham Young University announced yesterday that they have succeeded in converting a tiny particle of matter into the truth and sanctity of the Book of Mormon.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/byu-scientists-convert-matter-into-mormonism,1681/

Poems from "A Space Child's Mother Goose"

published 1958: Verses by Frederick Winsor
===============================
1.
Probable-Possible, my black hen
She lays eggs in the Relative When.
She doesn't lay eggs is the Positive Now
Because she's unable to Postulate How.

8.
Three jolly sailors from Blaydon-on-Tyne
They went to sea in a bottle by Klein.
Since the sea was entirely inside the hull
The scenery seen was exceedingly dull.

20.
Russell and Whitehead and Hegel and Kant!
Maybe I shall and maybe I shan't.
Maybe I shan't and maybe I shall.
Kant Russell Whitehead, Hegel et. al.

Friday, July 30, 2010

Threes

by John Atherton (to be sung by Niels Bohr)


I think that I shall never c
A # lovelier than 3;
For 3 < 6 or 4,
And than 1 it's slightly more.
All things in nature come in 3s,
Like ... , trio's, Q.E.D.s;
While $s gain more dignity
if augmented 3 x 3 --
A 3 whose slender curves are pressed
By banks, for compound interest;
Oh, would that, paying loans or rent,
My rates were only 3%!
3² expands with rapture free,
And reaches toward infinity;
3 complements each x and y,
And intimately lives with pi.
A circle's # of °
Are best ÷ up by 3s,
But wrapped in dim obscurity
Is the square root of -3.
Atoms are split by men like me,
But only God is 1 in 3.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Untouched Meteorite Impact Crater Discovered By Google Earth

A pristine meteorite impact crater has been found in a remote area of the Sahara desert in southwest Egypt. The crater was originally noticed on Google Earth images, and is believed to be only a few thousand years old.
The 45-meter wide, 16-meter deep 'Kamil' crater -- in the Sahara desert -- was discovered by scientists examining Google Earth satellite photos.
"There are only 176 confirmed impact craters on the Earth’s surface, but most wear away quickly, and only 15 of them are smaller than 300 meters in diameter."

A New Possible Linear Accelerator at Cern

A new possible linear accelerator for electrons and positrons -- like the linear (straight line accelerator at Stanford University, now officially called 'SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory') is in the planning stage at CERN.  This straight line -- as opposed to a ring-shaped accelerator like the LHC) would accelerate electrons and their 'opposing' positron particles to almost the speed of light in opposite directions, and then whack them together, potentially yielding much amusement, doctoral theses and maybe even yet another glimpse into what all this universe thing is all about...

Sunday, July 18, 2010

There is no gravity...

In what may indeed be only of the most important Physics papers of several decades, Erik Verlinde, 48, a respected mathematician and string theorist at the Unversity of Amsterdam, has pretty much supplied an entirely new phyisical view of that most mysterious of subjects: gravity. In Verlinde's view, gravity is not one of the four fundamental forces in the universe, and in fact, "doesn't really exist." The statement might have been made to be rather a provocation, but in Verlinde's view, as he argued in a recent paper, titled “On the Origin of Gravity and the Laws of Newton,” gravity is a consequence of the venerable laws of thermodynamics, which describe the behavior of heat and gases.

There is a public explication of this, in the New York Times article at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/13/science/13gravity.html?ref=science

Dr. Verlinde's paper is downloadable at:
http://arxiv.org/abs/1001.0785

Note: according to the Times article, very few scientists claim to fully understand Verlinde's paper. He himself says to pay attention more to the words and the concepts, rather than the maths.

In the coming decades, much of real importance or interest may come from this...

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

NASA: not that it was ever perfect..

But at least it wasn't utterly, unbelievably, appallingly and increasingly irrelevant, downright stupid and knowingly being used as nothing more than a political tool, by someone who pledged to do better, and not to continue the crap which preceedeth.

Here's the money-shot quote from the current NASA Administrator Charles Bolden, testifying in public before Congress:

"When I became the NASA administrator, [Obama] charged me with three things, One, he wanted me to help re-inspire children to want to get into science and math; he wanted me to expand our international relationships; and third, and perhaps foremost, he wanted me to find a way to reach out to the Muslim world and engage much more with dominantly Muslim nations to help them feel good about their historic contribution to science, math, and engineering."

So much for Kennedy's speech, for NASA's original space mission, and for everything else it once stood for, and for which we paid our tax monies for:  and for the most part gladly, since it lead to some of the greatest achievements of mankind as a species.

Now,  our former astronauts and real heros like John Glenn, Neal Armstrong and Eugene Cernan all publicly denounce and express dismay at the current Administration's supposed policies (That would be 'President Obama').

So, from a grand vision of mankind's future in space and the ultimate journey to the stars, ensuring homo sapiens' survival and continued evolution, we are now left with trying to encourage our own children to study more math and science in our failed educational system, and to help Muslim cultures and communities feel
good about themselves. And at the same time admitting that the USA is no longer able to do anything other than reach LEO  (low-earth-orbit) without the help of other countries.

So, since no one reads this anyway, I'll close this rant with a long quote from William James (1842-1910)
"If this be the whole fruit of the victory, we say; if the generations of mankind suffered and laid down their lives;

if prophets confessed and martyrs sang in the fire, and all the sacred tears were shed for no other end than that a race of creatures of such unexampled insipidity should succeed, and protract ... their contented and inoffensive lives,
-- why, at such a rate, better lose than win the battle, or at all events better ring down the curtain before the last act of the play, so that a business that began so importantly may be saved from so singularly flat a winding-up."

And few seem to notice, but this is a species-wide, depressing setback.
We used to be better, and braver.
Sic transit gloria mundi.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Check out the entire universe, from Planck's view...

Basically, the first view of the entire universe scan from the European Space Agency's Planck satellite - the successor to the COBE and WMAP projects. Amazing. The main disk of our galaxy The Milky Way and surrounding gas and dust clouds are the bright horizontal swath and swirl in the center. Even more interesting is the mottled and patterned parts of the image outside the glare of our galaxy. These show the approx 3 Deg. K Cosmic Background Radiation which permeates our view of the universe from all directions. This is the remnant of the 'Big Bang' and subsequent expansion of our universe, from about 13.7 billion years ago.
The Planck satellite will be making multiple scans of the universe over the next few years, and then with the help of computer programs, will mask out the obscuration of our galaxy and nearby stars, to show a more complete view of the structure of this universal remnant of the beginning of our universe. The study of the patterning and clustering in these images will provide crucial evidence about the nature of the universe in its very early 'expansionist' phase, before the formation of stars and galaxies.

PS: In 1965, Arno Penzias and Robert Woodrow Wilson at the Crawford Hill location of Bell Telephone Laboratories in Holmdel Township, New Jersey, had built a large radio receiver to basically test communications with satellites in space. They discovered the pervasive Cosmic Background Radiation, which they once thought was due to pigeon shit in the receiver. They were awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics for this discovery in 1978

PPS: the interchannel noise you see on television between or on unused channels -- and the static in the radio spectrum -- is also party due to this Cosmic Background Radiation, so you can actually watch something due to the 'early universe' on your TV.

Saturday, July 3, 2010

Lines from T. S. Eliot

From "Burnt Norton" - #1 of the "Four Quartets"

Desire itself is movement
Not in itself desirable;
Love is itself unmoving,
Only the cause and end of movement,
Timeless, and undesiring
Except in the aspect of time
Caught in the form of limitation
Between un-being and being.
Sudden in a shaft of sunlight
Even while the dust moves
There rises the hidden laughter
Of children in the foliage
Quick now, here, now, always—
Ridiculous the waste sad time
Stretching before and after.

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

OK, I admit it and I'M SORRY OK????

So, here's the deal, since no one reads this anyway, sends me email, whatever, this seems pretty safe.
A long, long time ago when I was a lot younger, I went about the world, seeding the ground in a number of places, with a supply or iridium I just happened to have around (a different story altogether).
This of course, lead Luis Alvarez and others when they finally found evidence of this, to logically conclude that this was all a result of an asteroid collision, leading to the Chicxulub crater and the subsequent extinction of a large percentage of the 'dinosaurs.' In actuality, it was really IMHO a pretty funny joke.
But now that I'm almost 70 million years old, I felt it was time to share this with the precisely zero (0) people who read this.
Regards.

Sunday, June 20, 2010

.45ACP

The new one.
Single-stack .45ACP 1911-type, from STI: Trojan 5.0
(http://www.stiguns.com/guns/Trojan5.0/Trojan50.php)
Custom work (hard chrome plating, fiber optic sights, etc. by the best gunsmith
I know: Bob Cogan at Accurate Plating And Weaponry
(http://www.apwcogan.com/)
Call Jason Selva -- the office manager, or Bob himself.


If you own a handgun, everyone has to have a 1911. It's a rule.

Sunday, June 13, 2010

New Zen-like laser produces pico-second bursts of ... nothing.

In an advance that sounds almost Zen, researchers at the National Institute of Standards and Technology and JILA, a joint institute of NIST and the University of Colorado at Boulder, have demonstrated a new type of pulsed laser that excels at not producing light. The new device generates sustained streams of "dark pulses" -- repeated dips in light intensity -- which is the opposite of the bright bursts in a typical pulsed laser.
("stand back, or I shall fire 60 trillionths of second of darkness at you...")

Thursday, June 3, 2010

The Trouble With Boys (statistically speaking) WARNING! Contains mathematics

Probability and statistics are mind-confusing at times, even for those who work with them all the time.
Gary Foshee, a collector and designer of puzzles from Issaquah near Seattle walked to the lectern to present his talk. It consisted of the following three sentences:
"I have two children. One is a boy born on a Tuesday. What is the probability I have two boys?"
"The first thing you think is 'What has Tuesday got to do with it?'" said Foshee, deadpan. "Well, it has everything to do with it." And then he stepped down from the stage.
This is actually a very difficult question, made fascinating by the 'what the heck does Tuesday have to do with the result???"
Foshee's "boy born on a Tuesday" problem is a gem of the genre: easy to state, understandable to the layperson, yet with a completely counter-intuitive answer that can leave you with a smile on your face for days. If you have two children, and one is a boy, then the probability of having two boys is significantly different if you supply the extra information that the boy was born on a Tuesday. I'm not kidding.

Preliminary question: "I have two children. One of them is a boy. What is the probability I have two boys?"
This is a much easier question, though a controversial one. After the gathering ended, Foshee's Tuesday boy problem became a hotly discussed topic on blogs around the world. The main bone of contention was how to properly interpret the question. The way Foshee meant it is, of all the families with one boy and exactly one other child, what proportion of those families have two boys? :)
To answer the question you need to first look at all the equally likely combinations of two children it is possible to have: BG, GB, BB or GG. The question states that one child is a boy. So we can eliminate the GG, leaving us with just three options: BG, GB and BB. One out of these three scenarios is BB, so the probability of the two boys is 1/3 (not 1/2 as seems intuitive).  No big problem here, but then the fun begins:
Now we can repeat this technique for the original question. Let's list the equally likely possibilities of children, together with the days of the week they are born in. Let's call a boy born on a Tuesday a BTu. Our possible situations are:

■When the first child is a BTu and the second is a girl born on any day of the week: there are seven different possibilities.

■When the first child is a girl born on any day of the week and the second is a BTu: again, there are seven different possibilities.

■When the first child is a BTu and the second is a boy born on any day of the week: again there are seven different possibilities.

■Finally, there is the situation in which the first child is a boy born on any day of the week and the second child is a BTu – and this is where it gets interesting. There are seven different possibilities here too, but one of them – when both boys are born on a Tuesday – has already been counted when we considered the first to be a BTu and the second on any day of the week. So, since we are counting equally likely possibilities, we can only find an extra six possibilities here. To calculate probababilities, you can't double up on this stuff. :)
Summing up the totals, there are 7 + 7 + 7 + 6 = 27 different equally likely combinations of children with specified gender and birth day, and 13 of these combinations are two boys. So the answer is 13/27, which is very different from 1/3.

It seems remarkable that the probability of having two boys changes from 1/3 to 13/27 when the birth day of one boy is stated – yet it does, and it's quite a generous difference at that. In fact, if you repeat the question but specify a trait rarer than 1/7 the closer the probability will approach 1/2.

Life is strange...

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Neutrino oscillations confirmed (like you care? read on...)

So, "Researchers on the OPERA experiment at the INFN1's Gran Sasso laboratory in Italy today announced the first direct observation of a tau particle in a muon neutrino beam sent through the Earth from CERN2, 730 km away. This is a significant result, providing the final missing piece of a puzzle that has been challenging science since the 1960s, and giving tantalizing hints of new physics to come."
Anyway for a long time scientists knew that neutrinos (presumably massless particles and thus really really hard to detect and measure) were produced in great quantities in our Sun; but the amounts and ratios of the different kinds differed radically from what was predicted. A presumptive explanation was that some neutrinos changed type (from muon to tau neutrinos) due to an unknown and unexplained mechanism. On May 31 of this year, the 'oscillation' (change of type) of neutrinos was specifically observed and recorded, involving a wholly-muon-type neutrino beam fired from CERN in Switzerland to a detector in Italy.
The confirmation of this oscillation is signficant because the mainstream theory of  'how things are in the universe' and the most detailed, confirmed, measured and most predictive theory ever conceived by man and arguably mankind's greatest achievement -- the 'Standard Model' -- does not and cannot explain this. Neutrinos have always been considered 'massless' particles like photons, and the oscillation of such particles is prohibited in the Standard Model. So, our understanding of the universe and how it works, needs revision; this result and the revelations concerning the existence and effects of both 'dark matter' and 'dark energy' mean that the Standard Model needs to be redefined or replaced. The problem is, no one knows now what form or structure such a replacement might be. In the physics world, these are 'interesting times' indeed.